Local Ceasefires and De-escalation: Evidence From the Syrian Civil War

Local ceasefire agreements are prevalent in modern civil wars, but we know little about their impact. This study analyzes geo-referenced data on 145 local declared during the Syrian Civil War, 2011-2019, exploring short- and long-term effects intensity of armed violence. Drawing scholarship gradual confidence-building processes, theorize conditions under which may generate trust reduce conflict intensity. Using interrupted time-series analysis spatial panel regression, examine factors relating to design strategic context agreements. We find that can trigger both escalation de-escalation short term. De-escalatory outcomes more likely long-term, when signatories share a history previous interaction, ceasefires implemented stepwise fashion. also evidence diffusion: one area neighboring areas.